Late-Winter Update From Vista Patagonia

With El Niño strengthening across the tropical Pacific, there was plenty of talk about a wet winter and a healthy buildup of snow in the mountains.

Instead, the lead-up to winter was remarkably dry, and June did little to change the picture.

At the Teniente Vidal weather station in Coyhaique, only 11.2 millimeters—0.44 inches—of precipitation were recorded during May, followed by another 38.8 millimeters, or 1.53 inches, in June. The mountains were looking relatively bare, which is never particularly comforting when your summer revolves around rivers.

Temperatures during that period were more mixed than they may have felt. May was colder than normal, while June was approximately one degree Celsius warmer than its historical average. The clearest story was not the temperature, but the lack of precipitation.

By late July, the Dirección General de Aguas station in Coyhaique had accumulated 367.7 millimeters of precipitation during 2026—about 14.5 inches—and was running 33.7 percent below its historical average for the date. Totals vary between stations around Coyhaique, but they all point toward the same general conclusion: this has not been an exceptionally wet year.

Then July Arrived

July changed the mood considerably.

A succession of cold weather systems brought repeated snowfalls to Coyhaique, the surrounding valleys and, most importantly, the high country. Town turned white, temperatures remained below freezing for extended periods, and the mountains finally began to look more like they should at this time of year.

The average July temperature at Teniente Vidal was approximately −0.7°C, or 30.7°F, with a monthly low of −10.8°C, or 12.6°F. Based on the station’s historical records, it was Coyhaique’s coldest July since 2001 and one of the coldest Julys recorded here in roughly 25 years.

The prolonged cold matters almost as much as the snowfall itself. When temperatures remain low, more precipitation is stored in the mountains as snow rather than immediately running into the rivers. That gives us a potential reserve for spring, provided it melts gradually rather than disappearing during one major warm spell.

Still, there is an important difference between a snowpack that looks impressive and one that contains a large amount of water.

Several feet of light, dry snow may hold less actual water than a much shallower layer of dense, wet snow. The measurement that really matters is called snow-water equivalent: the amount of liquid water contained within the snowpack.

We do not currently have a reliable basin-wide snow-water-equivalent measurement for all the watersheds we fish around Coyhaique. That means we can see that conditions have improved, but we cannot responsibly claim that July’s snow has completely erased the precipitation deficit.

It probably has not—at least not yet.

What Does El Niño Mean From Here?

NOAA’s July update confirms that El Niño is already established and is expected to strengthen through the remainder of 2026. NOAA currently gives El Niño a 97 percent chance of continuing into early 2027 and an 81 percent chance of reaching the “very strong” category during October through December.
That sounds dramatic, but El Niño is not a direct forecast for Coyhaique.

It changes the probabilities of certain weather patterns across large areas of the world, but even a very strong El Niño does not guarantee above-normal rain or snow in every part of South America. Local conditions still depend on storm tracks, atmospheric pressure, ocean temperatures and several other moving pieces.

In fact, the latest seasonal forecast from the Dirección Meteorológica de Chile currently favors below-normal accumulated precipitation in the Aysén Region between August and October. For the Teniente Vidal station, the normal August–October range is between 200 and 266 millimeters, and the current forecast favors a total below that range.

The August forecast on its own remains inconclusive for Coyhaique. MeteoChile lists the normal monthly range at 77 to 129 millimeters but does not currently favor a clearly wet, normal or dry outcome. Seasonal forecasts also cannot tell us whether the precipitation will arrive gradually or through a handful of large storms.

In other words, more rain and mountain snow are certainly possible, but it would be premature to assume that El Niño will automatically deliver a wet spring in Aysén.

What Could This Mean for Rivers Around Coyhaique?

For anglers planning a fly-fishing trip to Chilean Patagonia, this is the question that actually matters.
The snow stored in the mountains can influence spring and early-summer flows across fisheries around Coyhaique, including the Simpson, Coyhaique, Ñirehuao and Mañihuales river systems. However, those rivers will not all respond in the same way.

We’ve Got Options

Each watershed has a different elevation, orientation, network of tributaries and exposure to rain and snowmelt. Some rivers rise quickly after a frontal system, while others remain relatively stable. When spring arrives, the timing of the melt will be just as important as the total amount of snow.

A slow and steady warm-up would gradually release water from the mountains and help maintain more consistent flows. A sudden stretch of warm weather—or heavy rain falling onto the snowpack—could instead produce short-lived periods of high and off-color water.

That variability is not necessarily bad news. One of the advantages of fly fishing around Coyhaique is the number and variety of available waters. When one river is too high, too low or simply not fishing well, another can be in excellent shape.

Having options has always been a major part of the VPL program.

The VPL Outlook

Compared with what we were looking at in June, the outlook has unquestionably improved. The historically cold July and renewed mountain snow give us good reason to feel encouraged about the beginning and first half of the fishing season. Based on the information available today, our best assessment is that we have a solid chance of beginning the season with healthy, fishable rivers and flows that are relatively normal, although likely variable.

That is not a guarantee of consistently high water. Conditions during August, September and October—and the way temperatures develop during spring—will ultimately determine how much water reaches the rivers and how quickly it gets there.

The current precipitation deficit means that additional moisture would still be welcome. Nevertheless, the cold turn in July has given us a much better foundation than we had several weeks ago.

As for the second half of the fishing season, it is simply too early to make a responsible prediction. Spring precipitation, summer temperatures and the timing of the snowmelt will tell that part of the story.

Anyone claiming to know exactly what February or March will look like from here is either unusually gifted or trying to sell you something.

A Message to Our Guests

Come prepared for a little bit of everything, and do not spend too much time stressing over the perfect week, river level or weather forecast.

Patagonia has never been particularly interested in following a script. Conditions can change quickly, and that uncertainty is part of what makes fishing here so interesting. Some of our best fishing happens when the weather is unsettled anyway.

Whatever the season throws at us, we will adjust, move around and find something good to show you.
Considering a trip to Chilean Patagonia? Learn more about our week-long fly-fishing program in Coyhaique and what to expect throughout the season.

Weather information is current through July 31, 2026. Sources include the Dirección Meteorológica de Chile, the Dirección General de Aguas and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Preliminary station data may be adjusted following quality control.

Source links: MeteoChile | Dirección General de Aguas | NOAA Climate Prediction Center